Recent Economic Developments, by Dr. Robert Eyler, PhD, SSU
Our speaker for February 8, 2020, was Dr. Robert Eyler, PhD, President, Economic Forensics and Analysis, and Professor of Economics at Sonoma State University. Dr. Eyler received his undergraduate degree from Cal State Chico and his PhD from the University of California at Davis. He is a member of the Board of Directors of Redwood Credit Union and a Sonoma County native. He spoke to us about recent economic trends.
Dr. Eyler compared the U.S. labor market’s response to the Great Recession (roughly, 2007-2009) with the recent Covid-19 recession. It took 78 months (6 ½ years) from November 2007 to go from the same number of workers in the U.S. to getting back to that number of workers! We are 98.8% of the way back from the Covid-19 recession. We could see a slow down in the recovery due to inflation. In the wake of the Covid-19 “recession”, we’ve seen a real spike in the price of goods and services. Things to look for on the inflation front include whether prices are stabilizing or falling, whether ports are clearing, whether the Federal Reserve raises rates too quickly, whether wages continue to rise, how many workers permanently retire, and how much will housing prices rise. Regarding the equity markets, its been crazy for the past few months, but we’ve seen a remarkable recovery from the Covid-19 recession with a sharp increase in the equity market. There is some sign, however, that the bull market is slowing, and economists will look at that issue carefully.
The Sonoma County situation is similar to the national situation. Here, it took 98 months to recover from the Great Recession in terms of the labor market. We are now at 96.9% of the pre-Covid-19 labor market rates, but we’ve also hit a road-block, which may or may not be caused largely by the recent Omicron surge and related shut-downs. Housing has been an amazing market if you own, but not so great if you don’t. The 2022 forecast for California is a 14.2% increase in housing prices. Sonoma County forecast is 9.3%.
There are some economic headwinds, including high housing prices and low surplus, the fact that Sonoma County has lost population for the 5th year in a row (and California has a net population loss for the first year ever!), whether there will be a more permanent indirect interaction with the Bay Area, and the lingering costs of Covid-19 in terms of the cost of doing business and business retention.
Dr. Eyler also addressed a wide spectrum of questions, including the lack of equality in growth unless are in the housing and/or equity markets, and the effect of Covid-19 and other economic factors on communities of color and on the entry wage job workers.
Thank you Dr. Eyler for the whirlwind tour of the current state of the economy! Your insights are valuable and appreciated.
View Dr. Eyler's presentation by clicking HERE. The video will be available for a short time.
On a regular basis, our resident photo pro Warren Smith, submits pictures of what is going on at the weekly meetings. You can always find the most recent pictures at the websites photo journal called "Meeting Sighting" Please note that all the meeting photos for the entire Rotary year are at this location with the most recent on the last page.
Thanks for all the great pictures Warren!Link to Meeting Sightings. The most recent are on the last page!
We are getting close to Valentine’s Day. For some of us, this is a wonderful time. A day where we can flounce our love, enjoy a delicious meal and gaze longingly into our partners’ eyes. For others, Valentine’s Day is a bit of a sore point
For me, it is a mixed blessing. My ill-fated attempts at love lead me to be a bit forlorn these days, but I have a zesty little dog name Dexter who was born on 2/14/2010. Therefore, I celebrate Dexter Bean.
I see everyday being Valentine’s Day. Love is our birthright. However, I think it will be fun for the next two weeks to discuss love related woo woo moments. What makes life profoundly beautiful is relationships we cultivate. People come in and out of our lives and some instill a soul altering impact. Enter the Twin Flame. A Twin Flame is our direct mirror. It is often a person we love and desire passionately. The feelings are overwhelming, intense, and often lead to misalignment and separation. It is a push and pull dynamic where one lover runs away and the other chases. The misalignment happens, because both parties still have work to do on themselves and are not ready to fully receive and give that intense love to the other person. If both parties do the work, the Universe will reintroduce them, and their union will be exquisite. And, there are many instances where this deep, intense connection does not work out long term, but that love is forever unconditional.
This term was popularized in the 1970’s but it has been around for centuries. Plato discusses the twin flame dynamic in fifth century B.C. stating Zeus disempowered humans by splitting us into two halves: male and female. Twin Flames are different from a soulmate. A soulmate is considered a kindred spirit. It is a person in your life that provides a sense of safety. A twin flame is that person who shovels up all your past traumas, and people’s worlds often feel as though a grenade was launched into their lives, and this explosion leads to a personal awakening.
Do you have a twin flame in your life? If so, how did your spiritual awakening happen?
Detective Kirk Campbell on the Golden State Killer Case
February 17 on Zoom
Our February 17 regular Rotary meeting 7:30a-8:30a on Zoom will be a Greatest Guest Day, a meeting when we have a speaker -- Detective Kirk Campbell -- who we feel will be of interest beyond our Club members -- to guests -- spouses, partners, relatives, friends, prospective members.
Kirk Campbell is a 30-year+ law enforcement veteran who retired from the Sacramento Police Department in 2011 as a Supervisor in the Homicide Unit and is currently a Lieutenant in the Homicide/Gangs Unit with the Sacramento County DA's Office. He was a member of the team that conducted the investigative genetic genealogy in the Golden State Killer case resulting in the arrest and conviction of Joseph DeAngelo who was charged with murdering 13 people and committing numerous sexual assaults. Kirk has since taken part in several investigative genetic genealogy cases throughout California, including the Nor Cal Rapist series that resulted in the arrest and conviction of Roy Waller who was charged with sexually assaulting 9 victims throughout Northern California.
Join the meeting on February 17 between 7:15a & 7:30a with this Zoom link.
Plan to Attend The 2022 Rotary International Convention in Houston and Party with us!
Every now and then a Rotary International Conference seems local, and 2022 is now. Make plans to meet Rotarians from around the world in Houston, June 4 – 8. You will be moved by the experience and meet friends for life. https://convention.rotary.org/en
Rooms are booking fast, so don’t delay in making your reservation. Our District Social will be held at Embassy Suites Hotel Near the Galleria, which is a few minutes from the main convention center, and located in the heart of the Houston Downtown nightlife district. Book your room here.
District Governor Elect, Jennifer Strong, has several rooms blocked next door to the convention facility at AC Hotel Downtown Marriott. Contact Jennifer at jestrong@jestrong.com to arrange for your discounted room.
And We’re Having a Party We’re getting together to enjoy good food, cocktails, entertainment, and each other. Join District 5130 Rotarians and partners along with our cohosts Bahamas Sonoma Rotaract Alumni Club and take a sip of that Rum Punch. You’ll be amazed to see the reception planned at The Embassy Suites Near the Galleria, in Houston on Tuesday, June 7th, 5:30 – 8 PM. A special Rum Punch has been added to the menu. The cost for District 5130 members is $25 and you can register online here. Best value in Houston!
M.J. Girard is currently an on air personality on KOWSfm.com His “Roots of Rock” is broadcast every Sunday morning at 7 AM
“Whether the Weather be Wet, or whether the Weather be Dry…We’ll Whether the Weather, whether we like it or Not”
Change is a constant condition that we all must deal with...whether we like it or not! As a native San Franciscan and North Coast resident I have seen many changes over the decades, and our current environment is definitely in the transitory mode. This “false spring” that is prevalent will bring a summer and autumn that will be hot and dry, a continuation of our states drought status, and we know how dangerous those conditions can be. Be prepared, in case, God forbid, we must evacuate our homes and head to safety.
Speaking of change, we continue our exploration of the sixties, which in mid stream brought the “British Invasion” and turned the world on its head! 1964 saw the Beatles “I Want To Hold Your Hand” topped the Billboard Top 100, followed by appearances on the ED Sullivan Show, which broke all previous viewing records, as Beatlemania explodes worldwide. Four of the six number one records during the first half of 1964 was by the Fab Four…a feat surpassed only by Elvis in 1956.
The Merseybeat overtakes the airwaves during the first half of the year, but by summer American acts retake their footing, lead by The Beach Boys and The Four Seasons being the most prominent. Motown also hits back with The Temptations, The Four Tops, and the Supremes! Feminist stances are taken with Dionne Warwick’s “Don’t Make Me Over” and Lesley Gores “You Don’t Own Me” illustrating for the first time in mainstream R&R the emerging viewpoints.
The two biggest, earth shaking events in the entertainment world, the Beatles first film “A Hard Day’s Night” opens to rave reviews in the spring, and the tragic shooting death of soul music’s biggest star, Sam Cooke, the most publicized casualty since Buddy Holly’s death in 1959.
Bob Dylan “plugs in” at the Newport Folk Festival, alienating many of his hardcore fans, but also bringing him into the forefront of the wider listening public as he hits the charts with his amplified sounds, backed by The Band. Folk-Rock is ushered in by The Byrds cover of Dylan’s “Mr. Tambourine Man” along with protest songs to give pushback on the escalating conflict in South East Asia. I served in Vietnam in 1971-72.
Blues-Rock made tremendous inroads, Pickett, Redding, Brown, Tex and others crossed over the racial boundaries with top ten hits, whilst in SoCal, the first rock concert film is produced, “The T.A.M.I. Show” featuring the Beach Boys, Stones, Supremes, Miracles, Gaye, Berry, Jan & Dean, and a show stopper performed by James Brown. On a sadder note, disc jockey Alan Freed, who popularized the term “Rock and Roll” passed (1965) away from alcoholism, aged 44, alone and penniless.
KOWSfm.com continues to offer a wide and varied format: 24/7/365 Check us out, and if you are interested, there are available programming slots for those who wish to share their views, news and shoes! So, step up to the Mic, and tell the world what’s on your mind! More information available on the studios website.
Keep humming along, singing your own song and thanks for tuning in….. God Bless.
At the start of the Rotary year, I challenged every club to plan and host at least one practical and action-oriented Rotary Day of Service. The event should address a challenge your community is facing that fits into one or more of Rotary’s areas of focus and should bring together volunteers from within and outside of Rotary.
Rotary Days of Service can motivate Rotary, Rotaract, and Interact clubs to plan innovative and impactful projects. They can showcase your work as people of action and introduce prospective members to your club.
I’ve been inspired by your response so far, and I want to share with you just one project that has captured my imagination.
India is home to an estimated 74 million people with diabetes, a disease that is a leading cause of death. Furthermore, about 50 percent of those people remain undiagnosed.
Rotary, together with the Research Society for the Study of Diabetes in India, saw the urgent need to diagnose, track, and treat people who have diabetes. Working together and with other organizations, we hosted a nationwide blood glucose testing camp on 29 September, which is World Heart Day.
The camp was spread across more than 10,000 sites in India, with more than 2,000 Rotary and Rotaract clubs participating in the effort. More than 1 million blood-sugar tests were conducted in a day, an accomplishment recognized by the Asia Book of Records. But more important than breaking a record is the fact that tens of thousands of people learned that they may be living with diabetes. They can now be treated for the condition, and they also have been made aware that they should take extra measures to shield themselves from COVID-19 and scores of other diseases that are caused or worsened by diabetes.
This month, on 23 February, the anniversary of Rotary, let us celebrate with more service days, showcasing Rotary’s work in our areas of focus. I look forward to hearing about your Rotary Days of Service. Please share your projects on Rotary Showcase, or browse that webpage to find inspiration and project partners. In particular, I encourage you to execute projects that focus on empowering girls, as they have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. The Empowering Girls initiative is resonating very well with members of Rotary as well as with non-Rotarians. The governments and NGOs in various countries are appreciating this meaningful effort. Let us keep focusing on it.
I am also happy that the Each One, Bring One ethos is bringing fruitful results. Let us ensure that all club members introduce at least one person to Rotary, and that we then all work to engage new members and keep them in our clubs.
In whatever we do, remember that we must push ourselves to grow more, do more as we Serve to Change Lives.
I always look forward to February, the month of Rotary’s anniversary, as a time to remember our history. What began as a small gathering in a Chicago office in 1905 soon transformed into a global movement — one that you and I are a part of today.
February is also Peacebuilding and Conflict Prevention Month, when we celebrate a core Rotary concept: the pursuit of global peace and understanding.
Through our global and district grants, The Rotary Foundation is a force for peace — as are all of you who use those funds for projects. A grant that promotes literacy can lead to greater understanding and economic security in that community and beyond. This lays the foundation for peace. When communities aren’t fighting over scarce water resources, because they have a working pump system, they can instead pursue education. Promoting peace is interwoven in all that Rotary does.
The work of actively building peace and understanding has been a hallmark of Rotary since its earliest days. But with the creation in 1999 of the Rotary Peace Centers we began a bold new chapter in this story. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the inaugural class of peace fellows; the innovative program continues to merge a strong, academic understanding of the roots of conflict with practical tactics for solving real-world problems.
Despite the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Rotary Peace Centers were able to adapt, ensuring minimal disruptions to the program. Now, students at our seven centers are resuming their normal activities. This includes young peacebuilders at our newest center at Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda, who are preparing to apply their new knowledge and skills in a region that’s in need of peaceful solutions.
The peace center program keeps growing. Our search committee is researching potential locations in the Middle East or North Africa to establish our eighth center, with plans for its launch as soon as 2024. This is a significant step for Rotary’s efforts in global peace education, as we lay the groundwork for the next generation of fellows to pursue peacebuilding in that region. And we aren’t stopping there: Our goal is to open a Rotary Peace Center in Latin America by 2030.
In the last 117 years, Rotary has grown to become a global force for good — promoting peace and understanding in all of our endeavors. The staying power of Rotary, the Foundation, and our decades-long commitment to peace are things that are worth celebrating, supporting, and sustaining for the generations
Why it’s important to consider gender at all levels of eradication work
by Heather Monnet, External relations officer and gender focal point for polio eradication, World Health Organization
How do issues surrounding gender create barriers to polio eradication?
Our ultimate objective is to reach every last child with a polio vaccine. The role of the mother and father in reaching those children is very important, and we must understand the dynamics between them in order to achieve our goal. For example, a mother may want to have her child vaccinated, but that would require her to spend a day walking to a health center or market — and she might not be able to do that unless she gets permission from her husband. Or if her child falls ill and experiences paralysis in the arm or leg, the mother might have to seek permission from her husband to take the child to the health center. There could be a delay of several days that would affect our ability to take stool samples and determine whether that child has polio or not.
Do more boys than girls receive vaccines?
On a global level, there is very little discrepancy between reaching boys and girls. You also see a more or less equal distribution of cases of polio between boys and girls. But the global statistics can mask disparities at the local level. We know that we have communities that are not being reached; we need to understand why we’re not reaching them. Gender plays a huge role in both supply of and demand for immunization. Who is providing the immunization — a man or a woman? Who is the decision-maker — mom or dad? And how do the immunizer and the decision-maker work together?
What are the key points in the gender strategy you helped develop for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI)?
The polio program has typically engaged women as frontline health workers because in some cultures, mothers are more likely to open the door to a female vaccinator. But women should not just be part of the delivery of the program. They should also be part of its design; they should be supervisors and team leads, and hold positions at the district level to make sure we are meeting the needs of communities. We also need to understand why we have trouble retaining female vaccinators. We want them to keep working with us.
We must look at our data in a way that allows us to understand the program better and to see where there may be gaps. Collecting and analyzing sex-disaggregated data will help us to understand if gender-related barriers are preventing us from reaching zero-dose children — children who have not received any vaccines — and to refine the way we plan campaigns in those countries.
The GPEI’s new strategy places a huge focus on community engagement. We’re looking at the supply and demand sides in communities. How do we create a demand that ensures that parents want to take their children to be immunized? We need to make sure that the offered immunization services are acceptable to parents.
Besides gender, are there strategies that focus on other types of diversity?
We’re also looking at engaging people with disabilities. And gender also covers economic status: A lot of gender disparities are much more pronounced at different economic levels as well as in different ethnic and age groups. For example, the decision-making power of women in developing countries who are not educated is more limited, which will impact their ability to make health care decisions for the family. All of those things interact.
In the last mile of eradication, we need to leave no stone unturned to understand which children we are missing and why. Looking at gender is one more way to make sure that we’re reaching all children. Fathers have just as much of a role to play as mothers. How do we overcome barriers, so that men are engaged in the decision-making process and so that they allow their children to be immunized?
Rotary is so well-positioned to be a lead on gender. It isn’t a women’s issue — it’s everybody’s issue.
This story originally appeared in the December 2021 issue of Rotary magazine.
Rotary Club of Santa Rosa Sunrise - Founded June 30, 1986
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What are the key points in the gender strategy you helped develop for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI)?