Avian Flu
Posted by Bill Molesworth
Doug Ewan introduced Terry Bloom. Terry went to U of T at 16 and was an electrical engineer by 19. He has spent 40 years with IBM in a variety of positions and has worked in teleprocessing, networking systems for clients like Air Canada, computer security for Presidential elections and establishing internet capabilities for IBM itself, among a lot of other things.
Recently he directed IBM's first response to SARS and is now the company's lead in its planning for Avian Flu.
Recently he directed IBM's first response to SARS and is now the company's lead in its planning for Avian Flu.
Terry started by saying that once a pandemic virus emerges, it's too late. The world has never seen one actually emerge before, but new technologies are allowing us to track this one. We are dealing with a parasitic particle of DNA or RNA that can't reproduce itself so it needs a host.
So far, Avian flu has mutated to 4 types, of which two affect humans. This means that no single vaccination will work for all types.
It is caused by a virus which is natural among wild birds but is deadly in domestic birds. In Israel last week they killed 800,000 to try to contain an infestation.
It will become a pandemic when it crosses over to Humans and spreads between people. People have died but so far it's been from direct contact with birds. There need to be three conditions - it has to be a new strain, which this is; there needs to be a new subflu, which there is; and it must be able to pass between humans, which it hasn't yet.
We have always suffered from ordinary flu - it comes every winter and all ages catch it but it is usually only fatal in the old and young. Vaccines are available for this and we are prepared for it.
Pandemic flus show up only a few times in a century - 1918, 1957 and 1968. They exhibit a high lethality; usually over 50%, and it can affect healthy adults. Because our systems have never experienced this one before, our own immune systems overreact and it kills.
It takes 6-8 months to develop a vaccine and more to produce it in the quantities required.
Flus that come from animals are more likely to start in Asia or Africa because the people there spend so much time in contact with them, which allows an easy exchange.
Avain flu has spread to 30 countries and this is Spring - birds are starting their migrations and the flyways will probably bring it to North America this year. Midland is on the Mississippi flyway.
American gov'ts are trying to restrict trade in animals and prohibit it with countries where the flu has been discovered. There will be a huge cost, just in fowl. When the flu is discovered hundreds of thousands of birds are destroyed, at huge cost, but at the same time the market for poultry dries up because people are afraid of catching it.
They can't if it's cooked properly, over 165 degrees, but even so the losses in markets are huge as well.
This flu was first discovered in 1986. It lay dormant for years but in 2003 there were outbreaks in Malaysia and it took a while to figure out what it was. Tigers fed diseased poultry died, but cats can carry it too. In 2004 more tigers died and pigs were established to have picked it up and pigs are carriers both ways. Some eagles had it and they cover huge territories.
In 2005 humans died in Vietnam and more birds died and civets were infected. Civets are a type of cat that were blamed for spreading SARS.
Terry said he had a section devoted to discussing how to prepare and he would be glad to come back and discuss it in depth but, in the short term he recommended making plans - personal, family and business which should be linked to the community's plan. There are websites - pandemicflu.gov - in the States and safecanada here.
David Mink thanked Terry for an impressive, though unnerving, presentation and said he looked forward to another module.
So far, Avian flu has mutated to 4 types, of which two affect humans. This means that no single vaccination will work for all types.
It is caused by a virus which is natural among wild birds but is deadly in domestic birds. In Israel last week they killed 800,000 to try to contain an infestation.
It will become a pandemic when it crosses over to Humans and spreads between people. People have died but so far it's been from direct contact with birds. There need to be three conditions - it has to be a new strain, which this is; there needs to be a new subflu, which there is; and it must be able to pass between humans, which it hasn't yet.
We have always suffered from ordinary flu - it comes every winter and all ages catch it but it is usually only fatal in the old and young. Vaccines are available for this and we are prepared for it.
Pandemic flus show up only a few times in a century - 1918, 1957 and 1968. They exhibit a high lethality; usually over 50%, and it can affect healthy adults. Because our systems have never experienced this one before, our own immune systems overreact and it kills.
It takes 6-8 months to develop a vaccine and more to produce it in the quantities required.
Flus that come from animals are more likely to start in Asia or Africa because the people there spend so much time in contact with them, which allows an easy exchange.
Avain flu has spread to 30 countries and this is Spring - birds are starting their migrations and the flyways will probably bring it to North America this year. Midland is on the Mississippi flyway.
American gov'ts are trying to restrict trade in animals and prohibit it with countries where the flu has been discovered. There will be a huge cost, just in fowl. When the flu is discovered hundreds of thousands of birds are destroyed, at huge cost, but at the same time the market for poultry dries up because people are afraid of catching it.
They can't if it's cooked properly, over 165 degrees, but even so the losses in markets are huge as well.
This flu was first discovered in 1986. It lay dormant for years but in 2003 there were outbreaks in Malaysia and it took a while to figure out what it was. Tigers fed diseased poultry died, but cats can carry it too. In 2004 more tigers died and pigs were established to have picked it up and pigs are carriers both ways. Some eagles had it and they cover huge territories.
In 2005 humans died in Vietnam and more birds died and civets were infected. Civets are a type of cat that were blamed for spreading SARS.
Terry said he had a section devoted to discussing how to prepare and he would be glad to come back and discuss it in depth but, in the short term he recommended making plans - personal, family and business which should be linked to the community's plan. There are websites - pandemicflu.gov - in the States and safecanada here.
David Mink thanked Terry for an impressive, though unnerving, presentation and said he looked forward to another module.