Professor Bickers is the Chairman and Professor of the Political Science Department at the University of Colorado in Boulder. Dr. Bickers offered the question, “Are we entering into a wave year and what is the likelihood of a red wave this upcoming election? So, what is a Wave Election? The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant gains in the Senate or House. These are generally viewed as a win/loss of about double the average midterm swing, approximately 45-50 seats. These have become increasingly common, occurring recently about every other midterm. For a wave election to occur, there are some identifying factors as precipitators.
1) National Conditions: The popularity of the President. recessionary conditions, scandals, enthusiasm differentials, voter excitement, mismatched seats.
2) Candidate Decisions: The number of open seats. Strategic retirements of vulnerable incumbents, Open seats are always more competitive. Entry of high quality challengers becomes for more likely when conditions look ripe for defeating incumbents. (Usually has held/won an office before).
3) Donor Decisions: The success or failure of major policy initiatives, Incumbents of the vulnerable party double-down on fundraising for PAC’s that give to incumbents. Incumbents raise more money when they are threatened. In fact, a leading indicator of an incumbent’s loss is raising huge amounts of money, relative to potential donors to their normal amount.
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