Brian Sobel Gives us the Results of the 2020 Election (As it stood on Thursday morning)
Our speaker for November 5, 2020 was Brian Sobel of Sobel Communications. Brain’s topic: The 2020 Election. Brian is a long-time political analyst and member of various local boards, including the Planning Commission of Petaluma and the Golden Gate Bridge Board. He has also written 3 books and been featured in such media outlets as the Wall Street Journal, the History Channel, the Northern California Radio Network, and various local radio stations. Brian last spoke with us in June 2020 to discuss the 2020 election (his coolest quote from June, referring to Biden: “he’d attend the opening of an envelope.”)
Brian spoke extensively about the status of election results and the unfolding drama of counting the ballots in various states. At that time, the key states in dispute for the presidential election were PA, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Alaska. His tally at the time was that Biden had 264 Electoral College votes. He thought that ‘absent litigation’ any of those states could go to Biden. Trump’s pathway was difficult at best, but Biden could go over the top to 270 Electoral College votes if any of those states voted for him. (Brian knew was correct because on Saturday all of the major networks forecast that Biden had won the PA vote and was elected President of the United States.)
As Brian foretold, however, there is litigation in various states filed by the Trump campaign and others. Brian mentioned that such litigation raises a variety of voting fraud and related challenges. Brian noted that one of the key objections from President Trump’s supporters is that because the election night vote was so one-sided in the President’s favor, the subsequent reversal of the President’s fortunes was somehow fraudulent. But Brian noted that U.S. elections are never decided on election night; our history shows that it takes a while to finalize election results. When a network states that someone has won an election, they are projecting future votes using mathematical formulas. It is not surprising that fortunes change in the days after election night, and Brian reminded us of the famous “Dewey Defeats Truman” signs.
Brian’s big takeaway from the election was that it showed massive voter involvement with the largest percentage of eligible voter turnout in history. It appeared on Thursday that turnout would be approximately 66-68% of eligible voters (compare this to 64% in the race between President Obama and John McCain in 2008). Increased voting by minority voters was also notable. He did not know the percentage of younger voters but noted that they typically talk a good game but do not vote.
The local elections had not yet been fully analyzed but Brian noted that District Elections was definitely changing the scene in the City of Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, San Rafael, and throughout the Bay Area. As to California and local propositions/measures, Brian thought it surprising the all the tax measures passed, including Measure U in Petaluma for a 1 cent sales tax. Measure P requiring greater oversight of police activity also apparently passed.
Brian’s key message: Congratulations to Sonoma County for its amazing 90%+ voter turnout. We are in the top 3 counties in California for voting percentage! And California turnout is also huge, even though we know the results long in advance. Californians apparently wanted to make a statement to the country (and vote on local measures)!
Great job Brian, you nailed it. Thank you for the great analysis and, especially, for putting this in context: Unprecedented turnout means that participatory democracy is still alive in the United States!
