David O'Rear Presents "Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Sino-US Relations"
Our speaker for September 4, 2025 was David O’Rear, Paul O’Rear’s brother, Bonnie Lander’s husband, and Penny Millar’s brother-in-law. In case that’s confusing, David provided us with a chart of these Sunrise entanglements.
David worked in Taiwan and Hong Kong from 1984 until 2015 in a variety of positions, including market research, analysis of political and economic trends, and Chief Economist for the Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce, where he managed economic policy with an emphasis on taxation, laws, and regulations, and major industrial sectors. His duties included policy lobbying, giving seminars on a variety of topics, and chairing hundreds of international conferences. David has a master’s degree in Asian Studies from the University of California, Berkeley. David’s topic was “Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Sino-U.S. Relations.”
China’s dealings with the West in the recent 5 centuries started with Portugal’s presence in Guangdong (Canton) starting in 1557 and its monopoly on China trade for generations. In 1841, Britain seized Hong Kong, just across the river from China. Hong Kong and Macau were returned to China in 1997 and 1999. In an effort to convince Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan to accept the transfer, China’s then leader, Deng Xiaoping, promoted the idea that China would do nothing to harm these countries’ economic interests after Hong Kong and Macau rejoined China. This was important because Hong Kong and Taiwan were 2 of the “Four Asian Tigers/Dragons/Miracle Economies” that had seen massive economic improvement and growth. From 1978 to 2012, China took a relatively calm approach to Hong Kong and Taiwan, but once Xi Jinping took power in 2012, the political situation soured, and China cracked down on Hong Kong’s democratic political parties and processes. Taiwan noticed this change.
The threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains significant, but David believes that war is unlikely in the next 2 years (unless someone does something incredibly stupid!). Xi Jinping has wiped out his political rivals and purged China’s general officer corps, especially the rocket force. Very few Chinese military leaders have seen combat, and then only infantry warfare many years ago. This leaves China’s militarily leadership unprepared to fight a war against the United States, Taiwan’s key ally. However, David acknowledged that the current U.S. administration’s response to military aggression is highly unpredictable, leading to the possibility of Chinese (or U.S. miscalculation). As David says, “Stupid happens.”
Thank you, David, for sharing your amazing depth of knowledge with Santa Rosa Sunrise Rotary. Your remarks will help us all understand the possibility and risks of war between China, the U.S., and Taiwan.
Click HERE to view a limited time recording of David's presentation.
