Arguing About Covid-19

I recently got into an argument with someone about meeting them to review some paperwork.

 

We had sent the document over email, but they wanted personalized service, and an opportunity to connect over face-to-face interaction.

 

Under normal circumstances, I would be right over. I always prefer face-to-face, and as we are in the service industry, I pride myself on doing my best to go above and beyond my client’s expectations.

 

These are not normal circumstances, and we need to do everything we can to make choices that support  all of our priorities; our businesses, our families, and our community as a whole.

 

What that looks like will be different for everyone.  As a 100% commissioned employee in the service industry, I am in a unique position. I don’t get paid a salary so I am used to having a lumpy income. We don’t pay for our inventory, and we have a flat percentage rate for the staff that support us which is payable upon revenue recognition. Consequently, my life has not been impacted as much as others.

 

I still have a job, I have savings to draw from (for now), and as long as I can continue to put deals together, I will have an income. If it takes longer than expected to close deals, I will not be charged  for my overhead until I collect my revenues.

 

I can continue to work from home, almost as if nothing has changed.  I continue to call people as I typically do, but instead of talking about real estate, we talk about what they are experiencing, and I am seeing a trend developing in my conversations with people.

 

People understandably are afraid. Some of them are afraid that they or people they love will get sick. They worry that the healthcare system is not prepared, and that we are at risk of experiencing something similar to what is happening in Italy.

 

For these people, I have reminded them that we have had the advantage of a lag between us and the first countries that have been exposed to the virus. Consequently we have been able to watch what worked in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan, and figure out what sensible policies look like. Unfortunately Italy did not have the same opportunity and consequently, policies were not imposed quickly enough to slow down infection. We are seeing the consequences of this lack of action unfold today.

 

On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, some people are worried that the cure will be worse than the disease. The economic fallout has already started to shock the economy as people lose their jobs, businesses are forced to shut down, tenants are unable to pay landlords, and landlords are unable to pay mortgages. Banks have reacted by increasing their spread so even though the Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates, mortgage rates are increasing, placing further stress on investors, and in some cases collapsing deals as buyers fail to qualify for financing.

 

Over the past few days I have waffled back and forth on what I think about these policies. At first I thought they were over kill, then I thought they were absolutely necessary, then I thought that they may be what we need to fight the virus, but how bad is the virus really, and is it possible that the consequences of these policies are actually worse for people than the virus itself.

 

Today I have come to the realization that I have no idea how bad this virus is going to be. Nor do I know how impactful the policies will be for the economy.  Unfortunately, no one knows. What is certain is that people are getting sick in our community, and according to healthcare experts, we are at risk of not being able to provide adequate service to these people if too many people get sick too quickly.

 

For all we know it is possible (though its starting to look unlikely) that these shutdowns will be looked back as unnecessary precautions, and that if we had done nothing, the outcome would be more or less the same.

 

It is also possible that these policies were in fact necessary to save lives from the virus, but that unfortunately people will end up experiencing  such extreme stress as a result of the economic fallout, that the policies end up causing more suffering than the virus would have caused.

 

We don’t know, but I do know one thing for sure.

 

Under times of crisis we need to stick together, and support each other as best we can. In my case that means practicing a self-quarantine because I have the luxury to do so. For those of you who are considered essential services:  healthcare professionals, janitors, bus drivers, supermarket/pharmacy staff, warehouse workers, postal workers, and couriers, thank you for continuing to work and put yourself in potential harm’s way. Without you, our system would collapse.

 

I do not envy your position, and I feel very grateful that I can continue to work from home, almost as if nothing has happened. But this is my duty. I must try everything I can to stay healthy so in the event someone on the frontlines gets sick, I am not taking up space in our healthcare system.

 

I am also trying to help our clients by connecting them to our debt and equity team members and help them find alternative sources of debt. This is an important part of keeping our economy liquid and prevent the financial system from collapsing.

 

At home I am trying to lift the spirits of my wife, and my family, and friends. I have called the people close to me in my life and tried to make them feel better.

 

Ironically it was my 93 year old Grandma who helped me. She told me that despite not knowing what tomorrow will bring., we need to carry on!

 

For those of you whose lives have been more dramatically impacted then mine, my heart goes out to you. If you have lost your job, your business is struggling, someone you know is sick, or god forbid has passed, I send my condolences.  But please remember that we can only  control what is inside of our control, we can only influence what is within our sphere of influence, and try your best to wake up everyday with a vision of how you can make yourself, your family, your business, and your community feel safer.

 

Again that will be different for everyone, and I am not looking to tell people what they should or shouldn’t do. I just hope that this message is received as it is intended. To show that despite the fact that I don’t know how this will impact my life, my business, my family or my community, I have decided to try my best to carry on, albeit with slightly different  methods, and continue to be a positive contributor to our society.