Predictions for the Economy, Politics, Technology and More
[NOTE: The following is a sampling of 2021 predictions compiled by Fortune Magazine staff and published in the December edition. Who knows how many will come to pass, but it makes for an interesting read.]
If you thought 2020 was an unpredictable year, you probably weren't paying attention. For over a decade, epidemiologists have sounded the warning that a once-in-a-hundred-years pandemic could ravage the planet, and that even the most advanced nations were ill-prepared for the fallout. In 2021, we will face challenges both familiar and unforeseen - but we will also see shoots of rejuvenation as the world thaws from lockdown. Here are Fortune's predictions of how the next year will play out. [Only a few predictions are shared here, many others are noted in the December publication.]
> Wall Street and reality remain out of whack; corporate America will thrive in 2021, but good fortune will not be evenly distributed.
> A likely GOP-controlled Senate, or even a 50/50 split, puts the kibosh on any Biden administration plans to reverse the Trump tax cuts; that should bode well for corporate profits, which are also primed for a major rebound when the pandemic wanes.
> Almost 2.2 million women stopped working or looking for work between February and October, 2020, and it will take years for these women to fully return to the workforce, and even then they will experience suppressed wages and lost opportunities.
> Life on college campuses will look more normal again in the fall - sports, dorms, students - but colleges will be far from free from their financial woes. Up against declining international student enrollments, state budget shortfalls and an economic crisis, small private colleges and some state schools will struggle to survive. The average college sticker price will continue to rise.
> Some new faces will emerge in Washington in 2021, but don't expect the status quo to be rocked on Capitol Hill.
> At 80, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has led her party through the hallowed halls of the Capitol Building for nearly two decades. Now she'll stand at the helm of the Democratic ship for one final voyage across the stormy seas of the Beltway before handing over the rudder.
> Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders will ease into the octogenarian lifestyle, and progressive Democrats will soon realize that their torchbearer is likely closer to retirement than another presidential run. A leadership vacuum will become a real risk, and there are no obvious candidate with the seniority or stature of Sanders.
> The President is having trouble letting go of the Oval Office, but wait until he sees the TV set re-creation. If there's one thing President Trump is good at, it's entertainment. In 2021, Trump will partner with One America News Network for a primetime show that will stick it to Fox News.
> Eager to inject an FDR-esque stimulus into the economy as the pandemic rages on, Biden agrees to Senator Schumer and Warren's resolution to wipe away $50,000 of federal debt per borrower and cancel significant student debt.
> New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman lands a lucrative book deal and manages to publish the account just before year's end. The memoir immediately rockets up the bestseller list, with a television adaptation to follow.
> It will be a year of reckoning for denizens of the tech industry as their unchecked behavior catches up with them.
> Expect Google to settle the Justice Department's antitrust case as it has in Europe over similar charges. Consumers will probably get a choice of search engines when buying a new device, and exclusive deals will be out.
> The first folding smartphones had a few things in common besides trying to combine the portability of a phone with the larger display of a tablet. They were powerful, but delicate, and rather expensive. Companies are relentless at pushing high-end features down to entry-level models. Expect at least one company to offer a folding smart phone selling for just three figures.
> Boris Johnson may have once prevaricated about Brexit, but his political identity is now bound to it. British businesses will soon learn the reality of the project, and it is unlikely to go well. Expect Johnson's premiership to meet an early end.
> In 2021, Chinese vaccine makers will supply more vaccines globally than Western firms. Chinese companies Phase III trials are focusing on technologies that won't require as much cold storage capacity, increasing the likelihood that developing countries will be able to support importing and distributing them.
> Surface temperatures across 2020 indicated it was in the running to beat 2016's record, and 2021 could be still worse.
> Telemedicine was always the wave of the future; the COVID pandemic just hastened its arrival. As hospitals remain overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, many medical centers have had to cut back on procedures that take place on-site. Don't expect this wave to crest post-pandemic.
> Vaxxers will beat out anti-vaxxers, but narrowly; polls have fluctuated but suggest only 50-58 percent of people will definitely get vaccinated.
> There's a reason you see people wearing face masks in public spaces. Don't be surprised if face masks remain part of your daily routine and will still be worn on New Year's Eve 2021.
> Expect the Affordable Care Act to live another of its nine lives.
> Next summer will be about celebrating everything we put on hold in 2020.
> In 2021 Jeff Bezos finally uses some of his fortune to get ahold of one of the most valuable franchises in sports, whether it's the Seattle Seahawks or the Washington Football Team. Either way, he'll cough up a record amount for a sports franchise of any type.
> "Bubbles" set up by the NWSL and the NBA proved sporting events can still be held safely, and they'll be the model for the Tokyo Summer Games. Expect many drastic changes, including welcoming far fewer ticketed attendees, having athletes quarantine weeks prior to the opening ceremonies and regular testing for the duration of the competition.
> After a year of social distancing and staying indoors while watching death tolls tick up over winter, young Americans need a release. The widespread distribution of COVID vaccine will coincide with the summer of 2021, just in time for parks across the country to turn into full-on party zones. Think Woodstock-esque full-time gatherings in public outdoor spaces.
> Following a year of cinema hampered by delays and theatre closings, Academy voters decide the late Chadwick Boseman saved one of his best performances for last and he posthumously wins Best Supporting Actor at the 2021 Oscars for his role in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
> Quinton Byfield, the highest-drafted Black player in NHL history, will star for the L.A. Kings this season and use his prodigious skating skills, quick hands and size to win Rookie of the Year.
> Stocks will keep climbing as new vaccines gradually awaken more industries from their pandemic-induced comas. But rising interest rates and slowing growth in Big Tech will keep markets out of stampeding-bull territory.
> Even with a full economic recovery, demand for oil won't reach pre-COVID levels, as the work-from-home crowd continues to avoid business travel and commuting. Demand from emerging markets will keep prices from crashing outright.
> There are currently just four Black men (and no Black women) running Fortune 500 companies, and one of them will retire in March. Expect modest but meaningful change on that front next year; three Black CEO's will be hired, including one woman.