Climate Change - A predicted, but very uncertain future
Michael D. Harmon, known to Press Herald readers as M.D. Harmon, retired assistant managing editor, editorial writer and columnist, provided his perspective on climate change. As he explained, he speaks to scientific topics in laymen’s terms.
The term global warming is still used, but the use of “climate change” has become more prevalent in recent years. In addition, a new term has entered the discussion: climate weirding. No one denies that there is climate change, but there has always been climate change. The debate is around what is causing that change now.
The world has undergone warming and cooling periods over recorded history. A modern warming trend started in the 1850s, leveling off in about 1998 and remaining at that level since then. Models developed by scientists have not been very predictive. Temperatures have not even reached the minimum levels predicted. Interestingly, the effects of the sun are not included in the models and history has shown that the world is cooler when the sun is less active and warmer when it is more active.
CO2 is labeled and controlled as a pollutant. Based on its predictive effects on climate, this has had adverse implications for coal power plants which provide a significant percentage of the power in the US. However, CO2 has proven to be a trailing indicator rather than a leading indicator of during warming trends. In fact, plants thrive on CO2 and greenhouses boost their levels to 3 or 4 times the naturally occurring levels in the atmosphere to enhance growth.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a body of the UN tasked to produce fully researched reports on climate every 4 to 5 years. These reports have become controversial, even among scientists who have participated in the studies, since the published summaries may not reflect what the scientist actually found. “Climategate” was mentioned in which a release of emails showed a systematic quashing of skeptics – scientists attempting to publish studies contradicting established climate change rhetoric.
His key point is that interpreting climate science incorrectly could heavily impact the global economy. CO2 reductions back to the levels of the 50s or earlier will cost the global economy trillions of dollars. Restrictions imposed based on a predicted, but very uncertain future could severely hamper growing economies around the world.
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Mike is an Army veteran, serving in Vietnam and then in the Army Reserve. He retired with the rank of Lt Colonel. He is a graduate of Bowdoin College and the University of Pittsburgh, and holds a Master’s in Ministry from St Michael’s Seminary. He continues to write a weekly column for the Portland Press Herald on a freelance basis.