Jacob M introduced Davis Schultz. David is a Professor of Political Science at Hamline University. He also teaches law at the U of MN.
David has spent a great deal of time researching how our voting systems work.
He said that there are 4 numbers to keep an eye on in the upcoming Presidential election (10, 11, 7 & 270).
Based on the polls Biden would win if the election was held today.
Four years ago the polls predicted Hilary would win (which she did in the popular vote). However the Electoral College determines the President not the popular vote. Polls do not factor this in.
In 2016 ten swing states determined the President. Historically if voters are undecided they generally vote against the incumbent – which was Hillary. This is why Trump campaigned heavily in those swing states right before the election.
The Electoral College has 539 votes. It takes 270 to elect the President.
Related to the 2020 election:
There are 43 states & DC where their voting outcome is generally known.
Biden would get 222 votes from these states and Trump would get 206 votes.
That leaves 111 votes from 7 swing states (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NC, PA, and WI)
There are 11 counties in those 7 states that are swing counties. The undecided voters in these counties are about 10% (or 50,000 voters).
With Wisc being one of the swing states and Brown County (where Green Bay is) is a swing county Packer fans may determine our next President.
If Trump loses but it close, David expected Trump to contest the election and send it to the Supreme Court to decide. If they don’t decide by Jan 20 (the date the new president is to takes office) then the Constitution says the Speaker of the House (Nancy Pelosi) would be the acting President until the Court decides.
David expected the Houses to continue to have a Democratic majority but the Senate may go either way.