WEEKLY BULLETIN • AUGUST 13, 2020
Thanks to his week's correspondent:
Dave Turner
Invocation:  Toni Harper
Flag Salute:  Michelle Chantry
 
 
No Guests or Visiting Rotarians
 

Good News & Announcements:

A new Paul Harris Fellow has been earned and awarded to Shawn Kennemer of BARC.  Congratulations Shawn!

Girish Patel will be celebrating the 1 year anniversary of his kidney transplant this Saturday, with a ceremony and plaque dedicating the practice green at Sundale Country Club to his donor, Adrian Mercado.  It is Girish’s hope that this life saving act will inspire new donors.
 
__________________________________
 

Religious bread? Canceled!
 
Mini Kenny illustrated the Cancel Culture with a video of racist and politically incorrect products on the shelves at Trader Joe’s. Definitely exhibited how extreme it could get.  Big Kenny added his own take – Canceled John Wayne.
 

The Duke? Canceled!
__________________________________

COVID CONNECT

It's what you'd call a "love/hate" relationship.
 
Sheryl and Lou Barbich were the focus of the COVID Connect video.  Note: Sheryl should not be ‘accountable’ for her actions during this new office sharing arrangement.

PROGRAM: 

Marc Doss, Wells Fargo Regional Chief Investment Officer, Greater San Diego Area
 
Topic: 
2020 / 2021 Outlook - Recession, Recovery & Resilience Factors that affect the global economy
 

Challenges:    

  • High unemployment rate until vaccine;
  • Difficult operating environment;
  • Election, social unrest;
  • China conflict intensifies – this is the defining geo-political issue;
  • Extreme uncertainty.

Positives:

  • Economy opening;
  • Science will prevail;
  • Fed policy and stimulus programs;
  • Vaccines rapidly progressing;
  • Economic resilience and innovation.

Other factors: 

  • Unemployment was at a 50 year low.  Now 11%+ and improving in a consumption economy;
  • Central bank assets have increased as more liquidity is injected into the market;
  • Lower interest rates suppress the federal debt payment burden even as outstanding debt soars.  Growth is the key  to managing the debt;
  • After a deep but short 2020 recession, a modest expansion through 2021 is expected.  China’s numbers are buffering this year’s worldwide figures.

Global Equities:

  • Equity markets have had a surprising recovery overall, but still volatile. 
  • Safe yields will be hard to find.  US large and mid-cap equities are generally preferred to international and are considered a higher quality sector.  Information technology is considered most-favored. Communication services, consumer discretionary, and health care are considered favored sectors.
  • Real estate, commodities (oil, gold, energy-related master limited partnerships) can be opportune.

Longer-Term: 

  • Science will prevail.
  • Consumption patterns are changing (online, telemedicine, communication);
  • Business will add flexibility, and maintain efficiency;
  • The pandemic will likely intensify existing stress;
  • Government influence will increase, for better or worse.  More revenue needed.  Growth is key!
  • Healthcare will play an increasingly prominent role.

Key Points from Questions/Answers:

  • With the government continuing to print money, taxes will go up and currency will be devalued.  This makes gold a good play, and is why growth is so necessary – taxes without growth won’t solve the problem;
  • PPP – There will be a new round, a second shot for small business;
  • He doesn’t expect the inverted yield curve, considered an indication of recession, to pan out because of sound fundamentals leading into the pandemic;
  • Projections for S&P earnings – looking beyond even next year to 2023 for normalcy;
  • Doesn’t expect the dollar to lose its reserve status in our lifetimes;
  • China is slowing, turning inward for demand and consumption.  Supply chains are pulling away, exports will diminish;
  • The US economy is “still the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry.”  Its ability to grow is much better than anywhere else.
Mockery or Flattery? Several members changed their profile photo to President Ken's. Jordan Kaufman can be seen here picking Ken's nose. Definitely mockery.
This notice appeared after the Paul Harris Fellow pin presentation video honoring Shawn Kennemer.
Marc Doss, Wells Fargo Regional Chief Investment Officer, Greater San Diego Area
Birthdays & Anniversaries
Member Birthdays
John Farrer
July 1
 
Chad Tongco
July 2
 
John D. Schuler
July 14
 
Ken Beurmann
July 15
 
Ray Watson
July 15
 
Paul Sheldon
July 18
 
Jon Van Boening
July 21
 
Karen King
July 25
 
Ray Watson
July 25
 
Cindy Pollard
July 28
 
Sonya Christian
July 28
 
Kurt Wingate
July 30
 
Spouse Birthdays
Betty
July 2
 
Claudia Galagaza
July 28
 
Cheryl
July 29
 
Anniversaries
Jeff Chandler
Susan Chandler
July 7
 
Join Date
Paul Sheldon
July 13, 2000
20 years
 
Dave Whelden
July 14, 1988
32 years
 
Kristen Beall
July 21, 2016
4 years
 
Steve Illingworth
July 21, 2005
15 years
 
Steve Williford
July 21, 1994
26 years
 
Lynnette Zelezny
July 26, 2018
2 years
 
Larry E. Reider
July 27, 2000
20 years
 
Mary Castaneda
July 27, 2016
4 years
 
Cindy Pollard
July 28, 1994
26 years
 
Jordan Kaufman
July 28, 2016
4 years
 

Area Meetings

Tuesday @ noon
Bakersfield North

at the Petroleum Club

Wednesday @ noon
Bakersfield West
at the Stockdale Country Club

Wednesday @ 6:45 am
Bakersfield Breakfast

at the Petroleum Club

Wednesday @ 6 pm
Bakersfield Twilight

at The Mark

Bakersfield  Downtown
at the Museum of Art

Friday @ noon
Bakersfield East

at Bakersfield Museum of Art

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