Jason Turner is the chief strategist for multi-assets at Great Lakes Advisors, a Wintrust Wealth Management Company. In this role, he has oversight for asset allocation, manager selection, and investment. He gave us an overview of 2020 in terms of GDP. 70% of economic growth is dependent on personal expenditures, and due to COVID-19, there was a record drop in retail expenditures of over 18%. Unemployment rate seems to have dropped, but inflation is predicted at 2%. Equity markets are down and the path to recovery is different now, as the pandemic is not something that can be fixed with funding. Reopening businesses has to be slow, due to health-based concerns. Consumer sentiment has plunged, but not as low as it was in 2008. People are saving more now at record levels. Political implications include the highest level of polarization in history. Long-term economic risks include climate change, consumer delinquencies, especially student loans, and the economic impact of income inequality. Mr Turner spoke about Illinois; population outflows have led the nation for the past 6 years, so debt burden per person is high. |