Week #16 - President Patrick O’Neil
(What’s up, besides the prices of housing?)
President O’Neil rang the bell starting the meeting at 12:00 p.m. and welcomed everyone to the “Best damn Rotary Club in Arden Arcade… that is the Arden Arcade Rotary Club of Sacramento.”
The Prez asked Bruce Stimson to lead the pledge. He agreed to do so but wished to delay long enough to allow Steve Turner to enter the room and join the meeting. The Prez then informed the club that Steve Turner was late today because he wanted to do the invocation. Steve’s invocation was heart felt… “Oh Lord! Thank you for your patience, your kindness and your forgiveness. Let’s have a good lunch. Amen.”
Guests
Jed Van Wagner introduced his brother, Scott. Scott was inadvertently renamed Chuck in last week’s newsletter. Scott like the name so much that he is considering adopting it but first he has to get the OK from his mother. Scott is presently playing UBER for Jed as Jed can’t drive because of his eyes. Scott will be a regular visitor until Jed can once again see well enough to drive. Love filled the room for Jed as exemplified by Tim Cahill’s observation that Scott is better looking and welcome to attend the meetings any time and the Prez’s statement that even if Jed can’t see us, we are glad to see you.
Tom Collopy joined the meeting at this time. Prez O informed him just how lucky he was to come in after the invocation.
Bell Ringers
Roy Vogel because he just returned from a three-week vacation in Italy. Roy noted that Italy is old and beautiful but thank God for the USA. Roy was invited up to ring the bell and spin the wheel. He got the bell part right but grabbed the prize envelope rather than spin the wheel. The Prez gently addressed the faux pas and informed Roy that he could spin the wheel or take the guaranteed one ticket. Roy opted to spin the wheel, receiving one ticket for his efforts.
Tim Cahill because one of his tenants got broken into last night, he is having trouble getting a permit to get another tenant into a space, there are supply chain issues, he is working on designs for some houses and he is confused on those… so why not be a bell ringer, because it is the best thing he can do. The wheel gave him two tickets.
Happy Bucks, Sad Bucks, Just Because Bucks
Bruce Stimson donated $10 because he was able to go back to visit Notre Dame. He, along with his daughter and her friends, watched the Fighting Irish beat the Tar Heels of North Carolina. (Editor’s note: How can these football team names be allowed in this world of political correctness. I am half Irish and being derogatorily referred to as Fighting makes me so mad, I am 50% inclined to hit somebody…. And who in their right mind would want to be called a Tar Heel?) Bruce had so much fun, endlessly walking about the campus for two days showing his daughter all of the sights while trying to locate his car. The Prez gave Bruce the same guarantee of one ticket or the spin of the wheel with the possibility of receiving none. The wheel, an obvious Tar Heel fan, gave Bruce 0 tickets. The Prez apologized for jinxing the spin.
Rob Olmstead donated $7, one for each goal his son scored during the weekend soccer tournament. The wheel gave him one ticket.
It was at this time that Ben Fox made his way into the meeting.
Michael Caplan donated $5, celebrating his trip to Oregon to watch the Ducks win 54 to 27. Les Gudger wanted to know the name of the high school team they played. This was Michael’s second game and the first win for him. The wheel gave him one ticket.
Al Cady donated $20 because he was able to drive to Edmonton, Vancouver and back home. It was a nice drive. It was warmer and less rain there than here in Sacramento. Al refused to spin the wheel because he doesn’t support gambling…
News, Announcements and Stuff-Like-That
Holiday Party
Les Gudger noted that the holiday planning committee had done a very fine job planning this year’s Holiday Party. The Nepenthe Room in Campus Commons has been secured for the event. It will be held on Friday, December 10th at 6:00 pm. The food will be Mexicanish. Music, alcohol and mistletoe will be provided. There will be a White Elephant Gift Exchange. However, this year there is a prohibition on wrapping up your spouse as your gift for the exchange. The secret word is “Mexicanish.”
Poker Tournament
Prez O’Neil announced that our club will be holding a poker tournament on March 19, 2022. We hope to hold it at the Sacramento Mercedes Benz dealership. Volunteers are needed to make this happen.
Dark Days
The club will be dark on November 23rd, December 7th and December 23rd.
The club socialized while waiting for lunch to be served.
How Covid Impacted the Real Estate Market
Michael Caplan introduced our guest speaker, Erin Stumpf. Erin is a real estate broker with Coldwell Banker. Eri and Michael worked together at the same company several years ago. She will be discussing “How Covid Impacted the Real Estate Market.” As you will see, Covid has impacted everyone in the housing market.
Points made during the presentation:
- In 2007 there was a credit crisis resulting in 15 months of housing inventory
- The market bottomed out in 2011-12
- February 2020 had a “Normal” housing marker with 1.5 to 3 months of inventory with the average in the $350,000 range in December 2019, increasing to $385,000 in February 2020.
- The market came to a halt in the pandemic. Properties were not being shown. Interest rates were very volatile. Pending sales dipped and homes were taken off the market.
- Court ordered sales were put on hold with the courts closed.
- People were leery of having people in their homes and contractors were leery of going into other homes. Sales came to an abrupt stop.
- Demand increased as people worked from home and could move anywhere.
- Presently housing inventory is about two weeks. This has created bidding wars.
- Low interest rates fueled the demand increasing demands on inventory.
- Buyers are being priced out of homes. Seasonal easing in prices and sales has not happened. The median housing cost is $511,000. This is much higher than the previous high in August 2005 when the median price was $395,000. However, the median housing cost needs to be $550,000, when adjusted for inflation, to beat the 2005 high point.
- Recently new listings are outpacing the number of homes that are selling.
- New inventory is not being built. Supply issues are impacting the inventory. Lumber costs were high but are modulating.
- 180,000 new homes need to be built per year to keep up with the population increases. Less than half that number re built every year.
- Interest rates are low but they will go up. Low rates are expected.
- A lot of buyers are coming in from the Bay Area and making our market less affordable for the people living in Sacramento. The median price of a brand-new home in Sacramento is reported to be $615,000. We still offer a great value, relative to $800,000 median new house cost for the rest of California.
- Housing costs are increasing faster than income here is Sacramento.
- Work from home is affecting real estate values and impacting the workplace and worker expectations.
- Housing needs are changing to include Zoom rooms and offices. Houses with pools are worth more than the used to fetching over $100,000 more than a house without a pool.
- 8% of the market is in the 1 million-dollar plus range. A lot of these houses are being sold to Bay Area customers. Hey are bringing with them Bay Area customs, eliminating inspection contingencies. The local market is being impacted by this dynamic.
- Half of her sellers are leaving the state to cash in on affordable housing elsewhere. 3 in 10 sellers are leaving California.
Prez O’Neil thanked Erin for a very informative presentation.
Secret Word
Prez O asked, “By a show of hands, who knows the secret word?” Jenny Davini was the first to raise her hand. She correctly announced that “Enforcer” was the secret word. She was awarded one extra ticket for knowing the secret word.
Opportunity Drawing
President Patrick O’Neil pulled Jed Van Wagner’s ticket, and he did not draw the Ace of spades. Jed selected envelope #3 which did contain the Piatti’s gift card.
President Patrick O’Neil rang the bell at 1:12 P.M. closing the meeting.
Respectfully (more or less) submitted by,
Mike Grace
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