Guest Speaker: Jaap Poll
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Ivor Roberts gave a history of Jaap’s life thus far. Born in Indonesia - interned in a Japanese prison camp - obtained qualifications as a Geologist in Holland - commenced work with Shell, then Woodside and several other Companies worldwide - received several academic awards – joined Rotary in Port Moresby in 1972 - has been President of four Rotary Clubs. |
A Cool Look at Climate Change
Jaap reminded members that in accepting membership of Rotary they were tasked with the responsibility to keep members informed of developments in their area of service.
Climate change is real – look back at Ice Age, etc.
There are
Believers, who believe a significant portion of climate change is due to man-made CO2 (and therefore the process is reversible),
and
Sceptics, who believe only a small part, if any, is due to man-made CO2; the rest is natural.
About 15,000 years ago temperatures rose by 4oC and sea level by 120 metres, without human input.
CO2 is plant food – increased food crop growth from increased CO2.
Over 90% of the time the Earth has been warmer than now – Romans grew grapes in Scotland, and Greenland was habitated.
The Vostok Ice Core in Antarctica has samples from approx. 450,000 years, and indicates 110,000-year solar cycles.
CO2 is not the driver.
- 112,000 cycle – elliptical orbit – we are moving away from the Sun – may lead to another Ice Age.
- Earth’s wobble on-axis – movement of Magnetic Poles.
- Solar variability (sunspots) – 11-year cycle.
- Ocean currents.
- Volcanoes, meteors, etc.
Climate is a chaotic non-linear system, so is hard to predict.
There are many forecasts – some very extreme. Thirteen significant errors were found in Al Gore’s presentation, which was ruled as unacceptable for UK schools.
Jaap has presented data he has found as a Geoscientist.
No computer model has correctly predicted change – has not been based on historical data.
Past ‘unshakeable’ beliefs:
- Earth is flat
- Blood-letting by leeches was beneficial
- Sun/planets circle the Earth
- Y2K
There is a restriction on the free flow of information.
Are we destroying the world?
No, Earth is too resilient but we are destroying life.
Humans are in plague proportion – world population explosion.
How to reverse:
- No more land clearing, halt urban sprawl, replant marginal lands.
- Stop polluting land/air/water.
- Develop new affordable energy sources – keep oil/gas/coal for future petrochemical requirements.
Are we Believers or Sceptics, or a bit of both? May be Common Sense.
Jaap answered several questions, some contentious.