Highlights of January 16 Meeting

President Jim Schmidt opened the meeting by asking Ray Smith to lead everyone in singing Three Blind Mice.  The Invocation was led by Darl Andersen and Bob Zarling led the Pledge of Allegiance.

 

Chris Krueger introduced her guest, Buey Tut with Aqua Africa.  Frank Rosenberg introduced Past District Governor Jim Erickson, and Victoria, an ASU graduate who is working with Senator McSally's re-election campaign and who was willing to stay following the meeting to answer any questions Rotarians or guest might have.  Jack Rosenberg introduced his granddaughter Danielle.

 

Darl Andersen found that it paid to attend Rotary when the token drawn had his badge number on it.  Chuck Flint explained that the holder of the ticket drawn in the weekly raffle would win $30 and a chance to win $921 if they could draw the Ace of Clubs from the deck of cards.  Danielle Rosenberg's ticket was drawn, but the card she drew was the four of spades.

 

Ron Thompson served as Sgt at Arms collecting the happy bucks.  Penny May was the first to contribute.  She generously gave $5, happy to be leaving Saturday for a two-week vacation in Rarotonga - her favorite vacation spot - a tropical paradise in the South Pacific.   John Pennypacker had driven to Palm Springs on the 15th to meet his niece at a golf tournament.  He said Francesca "Purred all the way."  Danielle Rosenberg was happy to be at the meeting, and happy to know her grandfather and father would be by her side whenever needed.  Ray Smith was proud of his blind song leaders who led the various rounds of Three Blind Mice.  President Jim was happy he and his wife were both feeling better.  Rosalyn had been down with the flu for a week and a half and Jim had caught a cold.  

 

President Jim told of a decision Ray Smith and his wife Vickie had made when they were young.  They decided to wait until their son was older to tell him that his father was an accountant.  He also shared four things to remember about accounting:

 

Russ Wiles with the Arizona Republic and USA Today provided information about the economy including business and investment trends and themes.  He began by saying the economy is moving along and growing, although the growth is expected to slow this year.  The current growth streak is in its twelfth consecutive year of growth.  Russ said there is a 5% chance of a recession this year, but a 40% chance next year.  

 

Arizona has had its fourth minimum-wage hike.  Our average wage is still one of the lowest in the nation but improving.

 

Arizona is number 3 in the nation for job growth

 

Wiles stated that Governor Ducey was correct when he stated recently that the Arizona economy is diverse.  The problem in the metro area is the cost of housing.  The greatest growth in new business is in the East Valley.  It is desirable to attract corporate headquarters.  Top executives will want to live near where they work and their presence is a driving force behind construction, quality schools, and quality health care.  

 

He spoke a bit about a boom in commercial construction which can be a precursor for a boom/bust cycle.

 

Arizona is getting into the auto manufacturing business.  Pinal County will benefit from jobs created with a manufacturing plant in Coolidge and another in Casa Grande.  Headquarters will be in Phoenix.  These plants will create need for more housing.

 

The economic winners of the last decade have been professionals and college graduates.  The losers have been less educated blue-collar workers, renters, those in rural Arizona in small towns.  Tucson was also among the losers.  One third of the layoffs in Arizona in the last year have been in Tucson.

 

The wealth gap has widened.  The median household income is $117,000.

 

When asked if the economy is fairly good, Russ said Republicans think so and Democrats do not.

 

In a study by the Economic Innovation Group, Arizona has seven of the nation's most popular cities.  Gilbert was number one.  Scottsdale and Chandler were in the top five.

 

He spoke a bit about the stock market.  We have been in a bull market for eleven years.  Last year, a new record in the market was set twenty-seven times.  The current Dow Jones is over $30,000.  The good news is the market should hang in - seventeen out of the last nineteen presidential election years, the market has been positive.

 

Signs that a market is overheating are when mergers and acquisitions are up and there are significant changes in stock mutual fund investment.  There is not a lot of that which might indicate the market will crater.

 

Real estate is faring well.  Arizona home prices have finally risen above the 2006 peak.  Mortgage interest rates are still very attractive.

 

The largest non-government employers in the Phoenix market are Banner Health, Walmart, Kroger, Wells Fargo and Albertsons.

 

Causes for concern are that four out of ten are living paycheck to paycheck.  The recommended amount of savings in a household is three to six months of living expenses.  Very few of these households are able to accumulate that.  Credit card balances are high.  Doctor visits are skipped for financial reasons, and many of these households depend on their tax refund to make larger purchases.  Financial stress is high.

 

Russ said that if a person were to skip one Starbucks a day, they could save $1,250/year.  If invested in a Roth IRA for thirty years, they could accumulate $106,000.  He pointed this out to illustrate that savings could improve for those who adhere to good financial practices.  

 

The previous economic expansion began in March of 1991 and ended in March of 2001 - 120 months.  The current economic expansion has already lasted 127 months.  

 

He said nobody in either party seems interested in talking about or addressing the national debt.